The Things We Left Behind

It's moving week for the BountyBowl household. While every move forces something of a reassessment-of-the-importance-of-objects-and-subsequent-purge effort (imagine we're moving from one small apartment to another slightly less small apartment and space is at an extreme premium), the past week's upheaval was our first with a third member of the family and her related (little pink) objects in tow.  Which essentially has meant that the standards for what gets to stay among Daddy's possessions have gotten a whole lot stricter -- these days, only the person in our house who wears diapers gets to keep their toys.

Generally speaking, I'm fairly ruthless with the purge efforts, but I tend to hold on to old junk if I can sell some ridiculous sentimental-value story to Mrs. BountyBowl.  For years, I have thus been able to justify toting a bunch of Eagles-related crap from apartment to apartment.  I mean, I try to rationalize some of this stuff as kitschy and ironic ("Isn't it kind of funny and not at all pathological or immature that I have this ______?"), but who am I kidding -- I love my Eagles junk.  But, owing to both the decisions of the Eagles front office and our own square-footage constraints, it was time to say goodbye to some old friends.

What didn't make it (AS FAR AS ANYONE INCLUDING MRS. BOUNTYBOWL KNOWS):

Life-Sized Donovan McNabb Standing Cardboard Cutout. Oh, life-sized Donovan McNabb standing cardboard cutout, the times we've had!  Remember when we used to leave you in the hallway late at night to scare my erstwhile (Giants fan) roommate when he stumbled home after a night of revelry?  Or when we'd set you up out in Seattle when we hosted our friends out there for a football Sunday, and unfamiliar acquaintances would gawk in horror at your lumbering and unacknowledged presence (if you weren't down with my cardboard Dunavin, MAYBE YOU SHOULDN'T HAVE COME OVER IN THE FIRST PLACE)?  You know you're a classic item when you feature an Eagles player wearing white shoes (amember that?). But with Donovan McNabb now a (hobbled) Redskin, I can't very well justify holding onto this item.  Also, it doesn't really stand up so well anymore (the cardboard one, ZING!).

Brian Westbrook Fathead. This was actually a going-away gift from one of the Seattle guys who Got It in re: the NFL in a big way.  The most amazing thing about this object is that my wife actually allowed me to place it on our wall for a month once ("It's ironic!  Totally not serious!  Just kind of funky!"). While it rolls up into a cardboard tube (so easy to store!), it isn't like it's ever going to get broken out again. Also, I've already poached the Eagles logos for my office at work.  We'll miss you, giant wall-mounted B-West!

History Of Eagles Uniforms Picture. Apparently, we have too many allegedly tasteful things to hang on the wall as it is, and thus no room for this to go up anywhere.  In some future existence, I would have a house with a dedicated adult fun room where this could be featured.  Until then, it's out of luck.   

What I managed to hold on to:

Framed Sheldon Brown SI Cover. Cardboard Box wasn't just one of my favorite fantasy team names, it's also been a prized piece of my personal junk collection for years.  Also, it's small enough to be politely stored (at least until the next move).  

Plastic Commemorative Coffee Mug From 4th-and-26. It's tiny, and is a great Eagles memory.  I remember buying coffee deep in the second half just to keep warm -- not even thinking that I was getting an attractive commemorative mug in the exchange.  I can bury this one and get away with it -- and even use it to dump loose change if I'm so inclined.

Autographed DeSean Jackson Football. It's bulky, but it's just so current.  Sure, we don't have any place to actually put this object, but I can't very well ditch this so early in The CamelCased One's career? The catch with this one is that it's still in the box.  But what else am I supposed to do with it?  Buy some sort of mounting stand?  Don't act shocked if this ends up as a prize in a future IgglesBlog contest.

I imagine similar dramas have played out in other folks' houses?  Feel free to share your memories in re: your favorite Eagles objects/ junk ahead of tonight's game.      

New Column

I wrote about the Jets game and some roster battles for PE.com.  Tonight's game will be very important for quite a few guys.  

One player I didn't mention in the column is LB Tracy White.  I'm not sure what to make of his situation.  He was a good role player in 2009, but hasn't stood out at all this summer.  I think he needs a big game to make a push for the roster. 

* * * * *

Dave Spadaro posted his thoughts on the roster outlook.  There is one interesting nugget.  He questions whether Macho Harris has a spot on the roster, something we've talked about here for the last few weeks.  Dave says tonight's game is "huge for Harris". 

I think the coaches want to keep him around.  Macho doesn't have to look great, but he does need to have a good game, on defense and STs.  Macho should be one of the better players on the field, in terms of ability and experience.  That means he should stand out.  If he blends into the crowd...not a good sign. 

We Interrupt Our Regularly-Scheduled Programming

Some (many?) of you won't care about this.  For those who do:

Multiple sources told ESPN.com that the two divisions in the Big Ten will look like:

• Michigan, Nebraska, Iowa, Michigan State, Northwestern and Minnesota.
• Ohio State, Penn State, Wisconsin, Purdue, Indiana and Illinois.

...

The Big Ten is also expected to announce a consistent crossover game in football similar to Ohio State-Michigan that will be played each year. Expect to see longtime rivals Wisconsin and Minnesota playing every season.

So Michigan State becomes our crossover game?  Has to be, right?

Or would they do the fully awesome thing and make it a yearly 1994 make-up Nebraska ...

Scott-Calvin Trade Under Scrutiny?

According to ESPN, the trade that the Eagles made with the Cardinals, exchanging drafted rookies, is under scrutiny:

The NFL Players Association is monitoring a little-known "85-percent rule" in 2010 after two minor trades this week involving rookie players were made, according to union and league sources.

Under the rule, which is only applicable in an uncapped year, any drafted rookie that is cut by his team is guaranteed 85 percent of his first-year minimum-wage $310,000 salary.

This rule gets better:

The 85-percent rule applies only to rookies who were drafted in April. There are other quirks -- if a drafted rookie is waived by a team and re-signed by the original club to its practice squad, he will get the difference of the practice squad minimum of $80,000 and the minimum-wage $310,000 -- or $230,000.

Also, a drafted rookie will not be entitled to that 85-percent guarantee if he is cut and claimed on waivers by another team.

I have to say, I had not previously known about this rule. But it is certainly an interesting one. I think Mike Florio says everything I'd say about this rule, and adds a nice point about collusion that hadn't occurred to me. Collusion is the players' big stick in CBA negotiations. 

That said, it certainly makes the thinking behind the Scott deal a little bit clearer. The guy wasn't going to make our team, better to trade him and rid ourselves of the 85% salary guarantee associated with keeping him.

By the way, here is the exact language from Article XVII, Section 4(m):

In League Years for which no Salary Cap is in effect, 85% of any amount contracted by a Team to be paid from the Team's Rookie Allocation to a Rookie, but not actually paid by the Team to that player, either as a rookie, or as a re-Signed first-year player or practice squad player, which amount was not paid because that player was released, will be distributed to all rookies on such Team promptly after the end of the season on a pro rata basis based upon the number of downs played.

So to be clear, Charles Scott isn't guaranteed a dime, but the other rookies who do make the team get to split the unpaid salary of any draftee who gets cut.

UPDATE:

Another interesting facet is that a team who released a drafted rookie is probably going to be willing to pay him his original base salary to be on the practice squad -- the team is indifferent, since it has to pay out 85% of the money regardless, plus at least an additional $80,000 to some other guy to take that spot. Other teams won't be willing to match that bid. Further, there won't be much of a financial advantage to the practice squad player if he signs with another team, apart from accruing service time.

This could be a significant factor for someone like Jeff Owens. If he were to make it through waivers (difficult for a DT, but set that aside), the team might as well offer him $310,000 to be on the practice squad, because the difference between the amount they'd owe if he went elsewhere ($310,000 - $263,500 = $46,500) is less than it would cost them to sign some other player to the practice squad ($80,000 minimum).

For DTs, keeping a guy with any talent on your practice squad is incredibly difficult, because it is a very thin position in terms of talent. Guys get picked up quickly. The Eagles might be able to shield this from happening with a high salary to Owens.

Further, depending on the outcome of this NFLPA investigation, the Eagles might as well do the same for Charles Scott, assuming they retain even the slightest interest in him as a player. Of course, if they don't really care if they lose him to another team or not, they wouldn't have to pay him the full minimum salary, just more than anyone else is offering -- which they should be willing to do given the potential cost savings.

Couple of DL Moves

The Eagles put DE Ricky Sapp on IR due to a knee injury. Some observers noticed a limp of his as far back as the OTAs. Sapp never looked like the athletic edge rusher he was supposed to be coming out of Clemson. He was tried at LB and DE, but failed to impress at either spot. I've thought for a while he's an ideal IR candidate. Get him fixed up and let him learn the defense inside-out so that next year he won't be thinking and can just attack.  Going to IR is the best thing for Sapp.  He wasn't going to make our roster and his game tape wasn't so impressive that other teams were likely to come calling. 

There is another benefit to Sapp going on IR...time in the weight room. I questioned whether he had the functional strength to play DE prior to the draft. I saw nothing this summer that changed my mind. He must get stronger and also needs to get his burst back in order to challenge for a roster spot. Ideally, both will happen and he'll be a situational rusher and Joker for us in 2011.

To replace him the Eagles claimed DE Pannel Egboh off waivers. He was cut by the Texans. Egboh is a big dude. He played RDE at Stanford, but at 6'6, 280 is a natural fit at LDE. He is a limited pass rusher, but has potential as a run defender. He's just coming here to help us get through the Jets game, but it is interesting that the Eagles added a big DE rather than another pass rusher. We'll see what he does on Thursday night. I wasn't overly impressed with Egboh when I studied him for the 2009 draft. I want my DEs to get to the QB and that's not his specialty.

Can Mallett Be the New Number 3?

Martell Mallett was impressive in the preseason opener.  He had 15 carries for 60 yards.  The bulk of this came in the 4th quarter, when he was facing the Jags third string defense.  That was well done on his part, but the performance has to be kept in context.  Every year we see guys shine in Week 1 that seemingly came out of nowhere.  The reason for this is that starters play so little and that lets the backups play a lot.  Because this is the first game there is a lot of confusion and players making mistakes.  That creates chances for guys to shine.  In the last 2 games Mallett has 6 carries for 21 yards.  Those numbers are respectable when you consider that he hasn't played much and hasn't gotten good blocking. 

Has Mallett presented a serious challenge to Eldra Buckley for the third RB spot?  I don't think so.  Buckley only has 8 carries for 36 yards in PS games.  That's okay, but hardly impressive.  The difference comes in other areas.  Buckley is our best pass blocking RB.  He also plays a lot on STs, a role he held last year. 

Buckley also offers us versatility.  He can play FB.  We might see that on Thursday night vs the Jets.  The trade of Charles Scott leaves us with no true backup FB.  We could move a fringe LB like Simoni Lawrence, but I think we'll mix in some RBs, especially Buckley.  It helps to know what we'd do in the regular season if Weaver got hurt. 

I don't think the Eagles are overly happy with the #3 RB situation.  Buckley is a try-hard guy that is fun to root for, but in an ideal world you'd replace him with someone more talented.  Charles Scott was a guy we hoped would shine and earn that job.  He didn't play so well that we were going to keep him.  He did show enough potential that it meant he wasn't going to make it to our Practice Squad so we dealt him.  

I could easily see the Eagles looking for RBs from other teams.  I think they'd love to find a slightly better version of Buckley if the right guy gets cut.  Don't look for big name players.  Think of someone that can play on STs, block, catch passes, and has some running ability.  The guy wouldn't get many snaps at RB, but that is the skill set we'd want.  Former star RBs won't want any part of this job.  That's why you have to focus on role player types.

Back to Mallett for a second.  I do think he could earn a role on the Practice Squad with a good showing this week.  Mallett could be in the running for the #3 RB job next year.  He needs time to develop as a blocker and receiver.  Mallett isn't the most physically gifted RB, but he seems to understand that and runs accordingly.  He is a N-S runner that attacks the LOS and gives every bit of effort he can.  That's what you want in a backup RB. 

* * * * *

I recently put up a post on the Eagles and scouting changes over the years.  Someone in the comments section asked me to write up another post talking about the Eagles scouting / draft strategy.   I haven't had a chance to address that subject because there has been so much timely Eagles news. I'll put something together during the bye week (late October).  Things are going to remain busy between now and then.  When I'm not writing here, I'm doing it for several other sites.  Or I'm reading articles on college and pro football.  Or I'm watching tape of college and pro football.  The question deserves a good post.  I just want to put it up at a more appropriate time.  Plus, we'll have a better feel for what our draft needs might be at that time. 

If anyone else has asked a question that I've missed or suggested a post I've overlooked, let me know.  I do my best to respond to everyone, but there are times when I miss things.

Still The Best Ice Cream

Turkey Hill is definitely something I miss.  Nostalgia favor today:

[W]hen fans buy a container of Turkey Hill Dairy’s Eagles Touchdown Sundae ... they can enter for a chance to win a pair of free Eagles Club Seats tickets to a game at Lincoln Financial Field during the 2010 season. Approximately twice a month, two winners will be chosen to receive a pair of tickets ...

Five cents from each container sold goes to support the Eagles Youth Partnership, a program working to increase opportunities and improve the quality of life for children in the Philadelphia region through health and education programs ... 

Fans can go to turkeyhill.com/eagles and enter the code found on specially marked packages of Turkey Hill Eagles Touchdown Sundae for their chance to win.

My other problem is I could never not buy chocolate peanut butter cup.  No tickets for me.

Anyone Catch That Steelers / Broncos Game Last Night?

It's a sign of just how outsized the expectations for Kevin Kolb are this season that a performance like the one Friday elicits the adjectives "bad" and "unready," leaving little lexicographical room to describe the effort of third-year man Dennis Dixon in last night's Steelers game.

The stat line gives some hint of the problems ...

9 / 16 | 94 yards | 0 TD | 2 INT | 33.9 RAT

... but really doesn't capture the edge-of-your-seat terror that accompanied nearly every throw.  Balls in the middle into traffic, balls to the sideline that hung in the air forever, a terrible end zone throw undercut by a rookie CB baiting him.  

In other words, pretty much exactly what you expect out of a young quarterback who isn't ready yet.

In comparison, Kolb looks like a seasoned veteran.  Maybe not, you know, a particularly awesome seasoned veteran, but someone who knows what he's doing out there, even if the game still moves a bit fast for him when a) they're blitzing the heck out of him and b) we're not really game-planning much.

For a couple years now, Kolb's gotten the benefits of being compared to McNabb (he's more accurate, he's a "leader," blah blah blah).

On nights like Friday, he gets to enjoy the downside of that comparison.

Eagles Make a Trade - Only a Small One

The Eagles traded FB/RB Charles Scott to the Cardinals for CB Jorrick Calvin, a 6th round pick in this year's draft. 

Scott wasn't going to make the roster.  Unfortunately, the Eagles must have sensed that he wouldn't clear waivers and make it to the Practice Squad.  That means your best bet is to trade him and try and get something in return.  Enter Jorrick Calvin. 

Calvin (5'11, 184) missed the 2009 college season because he was academically ineligible.  I never went back to study 2008 tape on him.  He did have a solid year in '08 for Troy.  He picked off 2 passes and broke up 9.  He also saw time as PR and KOR.  Calvin returned one KO for a TD. 

There is one real interesting bit of background on this.  Calvin was originally scouted for Arizona by area scout Dru Grigson.  He just happens to be the brother of Ryan Grigson, the Eagles Director of Player Personnel. 

While Scott wasn't likely to make the PS, Calvin might fit the bill.  He only played one year of CFB and will need some work.  He does have talent.  With some coaching and practice he could become a viable pro CB and/or RS. 

Game Review + No Time To Panic

I finally finished my Detailed Game Review.  I mentioned in my early review that Jamar Chaney had played better than last week.  Oops.  The game tape wasn't as kind as my eyes when I watched it live.  Jamar was disappointing.  He needs a terrific game on Thursday to earn a spot.  Brandon Graham was the opposite.  I liked what I saw live, but loved what I saw on tape.  Oddly, his run defense is what's impressed me the most. 

* * * * *

There is too much anxiety right now.  Has the preseason gone as well as we hoped?  No, absolutely not.  I've been quite disappointed by what our offense has done.  I didn't expect great things this summer, but hoped to see a group that could move the ball efficiently and score some TDs.  The offense relied on big plays rather than good execution.  The starters only got in the endzone once, and that came on a short field.  The O-line has been a major disappointment.  We knew C would be a position with issues.  We didn't count on Max and Stacy being so up and down at G.  We didn't think the OTs would make so many mistakes and play like they have. 

I understand how people are concerned by the situation, but I also think people are forgetting one key thing...we have a lot of talent.  The offense isn't in rhythm.  Things aren't clicking.  That doesn't mean the situation won't improve.  Kolb did some very good things last year in 2 starts.  DeSean and Maclin played very well in '09.  Brent Celek is a top shelf TE.  Shady McCoy looks improved from last year.  That's a lot of firepower.  Don't mistake a sluggish start for the fact that we can't move the ball or score points.  Improved blocking and doing some gameplanning will make a difference. 

Where's the improved blocking coming from?  Getting Todd Herremans back full time will make a difference.  You could see his ability vs KC.  As for the return of Jamaal Jackson...I'm not sure what to say.  We'll see how that goes.  I'm also not sure how Nick Cole fits into the equation.  He could start at C or RG.  Or be our top reserve.  I think playing full games will build cohesion and improve the situation. 

We all had questions about the defense coming into the summer.  Most of the answers have been positive or very positive.  I'm sure some people have concerns about specific areas.  Overall I think most people should be pleased about what we've seen.  Brandon Graham looks like the real deal at LDE.  Stewart Bradley is healthy and the LB corps has played well.  Ellis Hobbs has held his own at RCB.  Nate Allen looks like he can become a good FS.  I'm very optimistic about this group. 

STs has been a disappointment.  Bobby April hasn't provided the kind of instant impact we hoped for, but I do think the group will play a lot better in the regular season.  April has played a lot of different guys for evaluation reasons.  He'll find a core group for the season and that will make a difference.  Focus on individual talent for now.  Sav Rocca is having a good summer.  David Akers has been terrific.  Quintin Demps looks like he'll be a good KOR.  DeSean has proven in the past that he's an explosive, dynamic PR.  

Look around the rest of the NFC East.  No team is playing well right now.  Dallas' offense was worse than ours this weekend.  And that's with a veteran QB and lots of talent.  The Giants have struggled more than people expected.  No one is sure what to make of Washington.  They were great in the opener, but that had as much to do with Buffalo struggling as anything else.  The last 2 weeks haven't been so kind. 

I know part of the problem right now is that a lot of people watched Green Bay put up 59 points on Indy on Thursday night.  We open with GB and that worries people.  Me too.  I would not project us to win that game as of now.  However, do understand that the Colts have been torched each week for big plays and plenty of points.  Our defense has allowed 66 points in 3 weeks.  Indy has given up 130.  The Packers offense looked great in the game, but they won't have a cake walk when it comes to facing our D.   

We are young this season.  That will lead to some ups and downs.  That's okay, though.  After all, you can't make an omelet without breaking a few eggs.  We have good coaches.  We have talented players.  Don't lose sight of those two facts. 

We might start slowly or be erratic, but I'm still expecting a good overall season. 

A Project I'm Working On

 
  

Early Thoughts on the KC Game

Friday night's game at Kansas City was a chance for the Eagles to calm some nerves and solve some problems.  The Eagles decided to go wildcat on us and do just the opposite of what we wanted.  Our 2 best players left with injury.  Trent Cole has an ankle injury and DeSean Jackson is dealing with an upper back problem.  The offense struggled.  This time they didn't wait to get to the Red Zone.  They looked sluggish all over.  The blocking was very up and down.  We did fine unless the Chiefs blitzed, which unfortunately they did a lot.  There were defenders running free way too often.  Kevin Kolb ran the equivalent of 3 miles, most of it from sideline to sideline.  Not good. 

The defense played pretty well.  They made a couple of costly mistakes, but overall had a good game.  Special Teams was up and down.  The big bright spot for the game was the play of the rookie class.  From Brandon Graham to Mike Kafka to Kurt Coleman, we got good play from a lot of rookies. 

Quick Thoughts

* The offense is out of sync right now.  Gameplanning will make a difference, but something just isn't clicking.  Jeremy Maclin and Kolb don't have the same rapport that Kolb and DJax do.  How is Brent Celek covered on every pass play now?  I think everyone has a share of the blame.  The O-line deserves a lot of focus, but the rest of the offense is at fault as well.  This is worrisome after 3 weeks of preseason football.  Any chance Aaron Rodgers will sit out the opener to protest the overly harsh prosecution of Lindsay Lohan? 

* I was happy to see Clay Harbor catch a couple of passes.  I feel better now.  I'm not sure he's ready to be our #2 TE, but he's headed in that direction.

* Mike Kafka likes the 2-minute offense.  He was good in those situations at NW.  He led the winning drive in the Shrine Game.  Tonight he comes alive late in the game and leads us down the field for the winning TD. 

* Riley Cooper was terrific on the final drive.  Throw that guy the ball more often. 

* Mike Bell is a tough, physical runner.  He knocked a Chiefs LB out of the game with a neck injury.  Bell was rusty, but you can see his potential on a play like that.  When is the last time we had a RB who could inflict that kind of punishment?  (Beside what Tony Hunt did to your eyes)

* Austin Howard gave up another sack.  We all love his potential, but Austin is a project.  He needs work. 

* Ernie Sims led the team with 5 total tackles.  His speed prevented a breakaway run by Jamaal Charles. 

* Brandon Graham looked like he got good pressure a few times.  I was really impressed with his speed in pursuing plays.  He chased a RB out of bounds on the far sideline.  That's speed and hustle. 

* Our pass rush did a good job.  Matt Cassel was under pressure a lot.  We only had 1 sack in the game, but we got into the backfield quite a bit and disrupted their offense. 

* Trevard Lindley played some with the starters at RCB.  He picked off a pass.  The ball was bobbled by the receiver and then deflected into the air.  Trevard stayed calm and made the catch.  Well done. 

* Chad Hall looks like Practice Squad material right now.  A poor showing next week could cost him that job.  He'll play a lot Thursday and needs to give the coaches some reason to keep him. 

* Nate Allen had another solid showing.  He blitzed again and just missed a sack.  He did hit the QB and cause an incompletion. 

* Jamar Chaney played better than last week.  I'm still not sure he's got a roster spot quite yet. 

* Quintin Demps had one long KOR and almost busted another one.  He needs to have that job during the season.  

* That Eric Berry guy is kinda talented. 

-------

UPDATE:  This is a good play to keep all the comments, so I'm just going to add my thoughts at the bottom.

• Without DeSean, we're just an ordinary offense.  He's the new Westbrook.
• The "Maclin as #1 WR" folks are sort of staring at the ground now, right?  Right?
• Stewart Bradley was worth at least two plays over a replacement-level Eagles MIKE in this game.  He had the early pass break-up in man coverage against a tight end and then that ridiculous play in the backfield on the little sprint draw.  I think he was blitzing, but he still made up a lot of ground really quickly.
• We're going to see more disruption from the starting DTs this year. Well, one of them anyway.  Bunkley was allowed to penetrate multiple times this game, and moved around with a fair number of slants and stunts.
• The biggest reason I don't like the "contact to a QB's head rule" is that it's called so inconsistently.  The first time Kolb got sacked, he got hit in the head by the second guy on the pile.  No call.
• Although missed calls were a bit of a theme last night.  It wasn't so much a poorly officiated game as it was a non-officiated game.
• Just a lot of sloppiness.  On the McCoy wildcat play, the snap almost hit Avant because they didn't wait for him to get across the formation.
• Todd Herremans makes plays.
• We pulled a hockey substitution with our defensive line in the second quarter.  We might have needed another one on that long drive KC sustained.  Our big guys got tired.  They're not used to playing this long yet.
• The Eagles have clearly worked on swarming WR screens.
• You can block Sims with a lineman or big TE.  FBs don't seem to bother him at all.
• That penalty was just Asante's way of saying he doesn't feel like blocking on a punt.
• KC punter Dustin Colquitt stole Akers' double sky point.
• Kolb took a "McNabb sack" in this game, where he ran out of bounds behind the LoS, rather than just calmly throwing the ball away.
• That INT to Maclin was a really, really ugly heave.

  - Derek

Kansas City, Here We Come - PS Week 3 Preview

When the Lamb opened the second seal, I heard the second living creature say, "Come!" Then another horse came out, a fiery red one. Its rider was given power to take peace from the earth and to make men slay each other. To him was given a large sword.


Tonight, all Eagles players put their lives in the hands of the football gods. For the first time, we face...Eric Berry. He is a rookie Safety for the Chiefs, but that's like saying that the USS Nimitz is a boat with some dudes on it. Eric actually has just as much firepower as an active carrier. The difference is that he can also kill you with kindness. He once broke my right arm with a thank you card. Eric could offer to help DeSean Jackson up after a tackle and accidentally rip him to shreds. Still, it is better to take your chances with happy Eric than his other side. Let's hope Eric is in good spirits and takes it easy on our beloved Eagles tonight.

As for the other players in the game...this is the closest thing to real football that we see in the month of August. Our starters will play about 3 quarters. There is no more shaking off rust and trying different combinations for experimentation's sake. Tonight we need to see good results. Winning would be great, but at the least we need to see good football. We want a more polished, efficient performance than the first couple of weeks.


Here's what I'm looking for:

Red Zone improvement --- We have shot ourselves in the foot in the first couple of games. We've made mistakes in every way imaginable. The starters have only played 3 quarters so it isn't like we've got a significant problem to this point, but we absolutely need to see progress in this area. We must score TDs. A poor showing in the RZ tonight makes this a serious issue.  Anyone who watched Green Bay play last night (59 points???) wants to see us score a TD or two before the season opener. 

Better KO coverage --- I wrote about our STs play recently. The biggest issue is poor coverage on kickoffs. We aren't getting off blocks and to the ball. STs is all about effort and hustle. We need guys selling out to make plays. The young guys have had a couple of games to learn. Tonight we need better results.

Functional OL play --- Last week our blocking was bad. The players failed individually and as a group. That was a bad, bad showing. Can't have that tonight. KC isn't nearly as good a front seven as Cincy so we shouldn't be beaten from a talent standpoint. Also, the guys hopefully spent a lot of time reviewing tape with Juan Castillo to learn from last week's mistakes. Juan had plenty to work with. No blocker had anything close to a good game.

We do get Todd Herremans back. He will start at LG. Todd won't play as long as the whole starting unit. Todd might be a little rusty since he missed so much time this summer. I can live with a little of that from him. He's such a veteran in our system that he should get up to speed pretty quickly.

Mike McGlynn will have to deal with a NT for the first time in the preseason. That actually might make things easier on him. Mike needs a bounce-back game after last week. We still don't know what condition Jamaal is in and Nick Cole's knee might keep him sidelined a while longer. For now, Mike is the #1 C and he could use a good game to get back on track.

Mike Bell --- We finally get to see our new RB in action. Mike has been itching to go for a few weeks, but the coaches have been cautious with him. There isn't a question about his talent. The concern is durability. Limiting his PS reps was a smart move. We do need to see him in action to get a feel for where he is physically. If Bell looks banged up, we might have to make a move at RB. If he's okay, we're okay. If he's not...time to work the phones. Remember what we're looking for from Mike. He is a physical, downhill runner. We want to see him move the pile and fighting for tough yards.

Clay Harbor --- I know he can catch the ball. I saw him do it at Missouri State. I saw it at the Shrine Game. I saw it at the OTAs and up at Lehigh. I would like to see it in an actual NFL game. Call a TE screen. Force him the ball. We aren't a team that needs 2 TEs to catch a ton of passes, but I want to see Clay as a receiver prior to the regular season.

Michael Vick --- Week 1 I loved what I saw. Week 2 I hated what I saw. Tonight should be interesting then, huh? Mike needs to bounce back and have a good game. I know his blocking isn't ideal, but a good QB will either overcome that and succeed or at least limit his mistakes. Throwing the ball up for grabs is unacceptable for a talented veteran QB.

Kelley / Hank --- Someone needs to step up in the battle for the #5 WR spot. I've gone back and forth with these guys. It would help if someone would earn the job.

Chad Hall --- We all want him to blow us away and make the team, but time is running out. Chad needs to show some ability with the ball in his hands, whether as KOR, PR, or runner/receiver.

Brandon Graham --- So far, so good. He's worked his way up to the starting role. Now let's see him continue to play well. Sacks would be great, but I can live with consistent pressure on the QB.

Backup LBs --- There are 5 LBs that I like (the starters + Gaither, Clayton). That leaves an opening or two for other guys. We need Tracy White, Jamar Chaney, or Moise Fokou to show they deserve a spot. If not, we might be looking at other teams. Fokou seemed so promising a few months ago, but hasn't impressed me in the 2 games. It would really help if he were to have a good night.

Macho Harris --- Our starting FS from last year isn't a lock to make the team. He's caught in no man's land. He's got a year of FS experience, but is now playing CB. The problem is that he's missed the first 2 games and lots of practice. We don't know what he can do at CB. Macho will do himself a world of good with some solid CB play or a good game on STs. You know the team wants to keep him around, but Macho has to show he fits in somewhere.

Eagles Red Zone Rushing

I received an email a couple days ago from someone asking a number of questions related to the red zone, specifically keying off this mathematically problematic and methodologically suspect bleacher report article that nonetheless raises an interesting question about the Eagles' red zone play calling:  Do the Eagles run the ball enough in the red zone?

I've looked at the issue in the past when I've done the annual red zone posts, but I didn't really get into the run game issues this year, mostly because the ideas I had there seemed like a lot of work.

But that email got the research juices flowing, and since the Eagles might go five-for-five tonight in the red zone, I figured I better get something up while it's still topical.

I'll start with something a little sketchy, then we'll drill down from there. Here's a table that lists the number of red zone rush attempts per red zone trip for the last four Eagle seasons -- along with the rest of the NFL in 2009:

 

It's not the world's most precise measure.  We'd be better off looking at run/pass distributions for the subset of all red zone plays.  But that's a much more complicated data mining exercise and the results above are consistent enough to suggest Andy/Marty's distaste for the run game does indeed extend into the red zone.  (I wouldn't pay too much attention to the LoS slices for now, just because we start to get into issues related to just how many plays the Eagles had in each location.)

So that tells us something about how often we run, but it doesn't say anything about effectiveness.  And that's a tricky issue, too, because you have the end zone causing bounding issues, meaning you can't just work with averages.

In the end, I came up with two approaches to get around that.  The first was to use FO's success rate measure to see what percentage of red zone runs should be considered successful (explanation here, scroll down to the bullets to see the numbers).  Applying those formulas to an Excel file of all red zone rush attempts yields this table:

 

Pretty much confirms what we already know in our guts about the Eagles' short-yardage issues.  When they need a yard or two, they just can't make it happen.  Their rushing success rate outside the short-yardage area is quite good, however.

That's one way of looking at it, but success rate is kind of a blunt instrument and I wanted to make sure our bins and small sample sizes weren't doing anything screwy, so the next table is just based on the percentage of yards gained out of all possible yards for attempts at each place on the field.  So, for example, if you're on the four-yard-line and run for two yards, that's 50 percent:

 

(I used slightly different bins in this display table to show just how much of this was truly a short-yardage issue, but I ran it the other way as well and the numbers look the same.)

Here's the same information in graph form.  Note how far below the league averages the Eagles were for in-close running plays in 2009:

 

The bottom line?  We can get on Marty for a few things maybe, but it's hard to argue he should have been running the ball more often down by the goal line when doing so was almost guaranteed to be a wasted down.  Might as well give the QB another shot and see if he can convert.

(And as we've discussed before, in 2010 the QB couldn't.)

Couple of Links

My newest column for PE.com covers the defense.  I'm starting to feel pretty good about that side of the ball. 

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For SB Nation Philly I wrote about the Special Teams situation.  Things aren't ideal right now to be sure.  I have faith in Bobby April, but it would help to see some progress against KC. 

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Sam posted his thoughts on expanding the season to 18 games on Thursday.  Here is my take on the situation.  The Reader's Digest version...don't do it.  There's no way Sam's logic trumps my anecdotal rationalizing.  Just can't happen. 

We've already got a good discussion going in the comments section of his post.  You may want to just add any thoughts in there. 

One Vote For An 18 Game Season

The 18 game season is getting a lot of ink today. I have thought a lot about the impact of such a schedule, and I think I surprised myself a little, but I like it (although I don’t think that is going to be the majority view on this site). Here are a collection of notes on the 18 game season. 

This is the most obvious solution to the labor dispute. Keep cash player payout about the same (in % of revenue terms) and go to an 18 game season. The reason this is so beneficial is that increased revenue from two additional games creates a huge profit margin for owners, because debt service (and other fixed costs) don’t vary with revenue, and that debt is allegedly the biggest squeeze on owners’ profitability. (See this post, especially the edit at the end.) So owners get more and players get a share of a bigger pot. Everyone wins, financially.*

The players already agreed to an 18 game season. Mike Florio bangs the table about this one, and justifiably so. I am sure Asante Samuel and Todd Herremans and other players don’t want to play 18 games during a regular season. But I am also sure they don’t want to take a pay cut, which could come from being locked out or through bargaining. Which do you think will dominate in the end? We see that in prior negotiations, in fact, they were fine with up to 22 regular season games.

Therefore, at a minimum, this is a negotiating ploy. The ultimate goal for the NFL is to increase profit margins. Whether it is by increasing revenue without changing fixed costs, or by decreasing player costs, the plan is a fatter margin. The players want their share of revenue to be constant – remember, right now, the cap isn’t a binding constraint on salaries right now, there is upward potential if they just keep the number the same. Both sides will use this issue to get what they want. But I think that in the end, since both sides have objectives met by adopting the expanded schedule, I think it is going to happen.

I’m not aware of a definitive look at injury risk. The biggest negative for the proposal is injury risk for players who go through two more games in a year. Bill Barnwell points out that injuries increase as a season progresses (of course they do) but I haven’t seen any research that suggests whether incidence of injury increases with games in a season, or decreases, or is unchanged. A natural experiment is the fact that we actually have teams that play 18 (or more) game seasons right now, once the playoffs are taken into account, so we can actually compare playoff teams to non playoff teams and see what the injury impact is. Further, it is possible to look at players’ careers and post-NFL lives as a function of games played per season and see what the marginal impact is. But I don’t know if that work has been done – I’m sure Pat or one of our other well-versed readers will point me to it if it does exist. My main question: would going from 16 to 18 games make a huge difference, or is that marginal long-term impact much smaller than, say, the impact of going from 6 to 8 games?

There will likely be concessions to make the physical toll a bit easier to take. That includes things like fewer preseason games, larger active and inactive rosters, an extra bye week, and even lighter off-seasons. Will this mitigate the injury/long term damage concerns? Probably not entirely. But it will help.

We are already asking 90% of players to play more than they already do. We expect every player on every team to be able to play 19 or 20 games – i.e. win the Super Bowl. We aren’t currently asking a player to be able to play 16 games and then go home; even those whose teams don’t make the playoffs in the end would have to have been able to go another three or four weeks if they had advanced. We are now going to expect that to be 21 or 22 games. That is really the change in expectations, regardless of the fact that it won’t be achieved by 30 of the 32 teams. Heck, at least 75% of the players in the league won’t meet the old expectation under an 18 game regular season anyway.

I feel bad about the injury risk, but barring more evidence, for me, it's part of the game. We can claim sympathy for players all we want, but we are asking them to play tons of games already – in fact, that is their reward for being good! More games and more injury risk! I understand that players are concerned by the reality, and they should be – I hope they get a great deal of money both while playing and after retirement in return for the marginal games. I don’t begrudge them a cent. But we all knew it was a brutal sport going in. My problem is the impact on the players that exists – once I get past that, the impact from two more games doesn’t bother me, barring data showing that the marginal long-term impact increases significantly with games played in a year.

The real issue for me is entertainment value.Yes, I’d love two more games. I would absolutely be more likely watch them on tv live. I’d pay money to see them. If I had season tickets, I’d pay more for nine regular season games plus one preseason game than for eight and two, so you could make me pay more. I would be entertained, and thrilled to watch more football. As a fan … I would be thrilled with a longer season. Even in years when I was just waiting for it all to end (2005, for instance) I wouldn’t have been that sad to have had two more games. Not in a way that outweighs how great it would have been to watch two more games of the 2004 regular season. Yes, the Super Bowl in late February or whatever will be tough to take, and I don’t envy the teams that have to play in Green Bay or Buffalo at that time of winter, but in general, more football is a very good thing.

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* I swear, on the EMB a year or two ago, I put up a prediction of how this would turn out, and it included five prongs: no change in cash as a % of revenue to players, 18 game season, increased penalties for badly-behaving players, limits on rookie contracts, and somewhat increased payouts to retired players. But I can’t find the post. Ugh. I still think that is a deal that gets done, though.

Brandon Graham - Your Starting LDE

The team has officially put 1st round pick Brandon Graham in as the starting LDE. I like the way the Eagles handled this situation. They started Graham off as a backup and role player. They mixed him in with the starters here and there, but never forced the situation. Graham impressed the coaches from Day 1.  They could tell he wasn't the average rookie, even for a 1st rounder.  The coaches fed Graham as much as they thought he could handle.  Brandon passed every test along the way.  Now it's time to see what he does as a starter. 

This situation feels similar to the way that things worked for DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin. We can only hope he has anywhere near the same kind of success.  Both guys had tremendous physical gifts, but also were bright, coachable players who worked hard.  The coaches embraced their talent and decided the best thing to do was get them on the field.  At a certain point, the only way to learn is to play. 

I have confidence that Graham will be solid. He has shown in the OTAs, Training Camp, and a couple of preseason games that he's the real deal. First and foremost we need Graham to be a good pass rusher. He's shown the ability to beat OTs with his burst off the ball . He flattens out well, meaning he turns the corner tightly when he does get by the OT. Graham plays with good leverage. We don't have a good feel for his closing speed yet. That can make the difference in sacks and pressures. Some guys have the burst to get to the QB. Other rushers need that extra step and won't seal the deal as much.

I thought Graham was pretty good against the run last Friday. That aspect of his game will need some work. He has the strength and power to be effective at holding the point of attack, but getting used to double teams and the size and strength of NFL blockers will lead to some ups and downs. Brandon takes run defense seriously. He plays under control. He uses his hands well. He fights to be stout when the plays come at him. I don't think his presence at LDE will be a problem for the run defense.

As for Juqua Parker...he's dealing with a sprained ankle right now, but will be part of this defense. His level of play might actually get better with the change in roles. Parker is undersized (255-60) and that's not ideal for LDE. Graham was 278 a couple of weeks ago. That extra bulk helps a player who is going to log 40 or more snaps a game. Parker can now come into the game and he should be fresh. That little extra burst in his legs could be helpful. Parker is an adequate starter, but could be better coming off the bench.

This Is Going Well

Thanks to McNabb's unparalleled ability to wreck a sympathetic story with unsympathetic soundbites, combined with the impressively overwrought coverage in the local papers -- and those are just today's examples -- I just don't ... care anymore.

I'm as surprised as you are.  I thought it would take longer than this.  I figured I'd be watching two quarterbacks with a critical eye this year.  In the case of the one playing for Philly, I'd be looking to see if he had "it" -- if he could succeed when all the pressure was on him, and when things maybe weren't going exactly according to plan.

For the Washington guy, I assumed I'd have some finely-calibrated rooting interest, wanting him to succeed just enough to prove his critics wrong without doing so well that it ended up hurting the Eagles or leading to several months of "look how dumb philly was / donovan was right about everything" articles by all the major publications desirous of a good storyline.

Now, not so much.  I'm done.  Done with the whole thing.  Done because I'm tired of reading things like this:

"My feeling was, 'I'm out here getting cut up, where are you? I'm always defending and helping you guys, but where's that support?' I thought it was beneficial, because you can sit there and tell somebody you truly love them, you're a big fan, your family loves you, but what about when we're over here in the hot seat, where are you now?"

And this:

"It's become equally obvious that we, in turn, are powerless to ignore McNabb. It doesn't help that the Birds traded him to a division and geographic rival. That's only intensified our strange and often unhealthy fascination with him, and vice versa. We can keep reminding ourselves that he's in a different place now and the Eagles are, too, but that probably won't do much good or prevent us from discussing the next McNabb-related commotion."

If by "us" Gonzo means "people who need column ideas and get judged based on web traffic" then yes, he's right.

For the rest of us, no.  We exist on a spectrum that runs from "don't care at all" to "still somewhat interested (see above)" but that line doesn't pass anywhere near "strange and unhealthy fascination land."

As of today, that line for me is a single point.  And it's facing forwards, not backwards.

I'm Really Enjoying Bobby April

There was no special teams seminar last week.  April makes up for it this one.

Scouting Changes Over the Years

We had a recent discussion about the way the Eagles have turned things around in regard to the WR corps. We struggled for years to find the right guys. Now we seem to find a good player every year, whether in the 1st round or late in the draft. What happened?

Jason Licht happened. At least, he's where things started to change. Licht worked in the Patriots Personnel Department from 1999-2002. We then hired him to be our Asst. Director of Player Personnel in 2003. Jason worked with Tom Heckert and the people at NovaCare as well the scouts out on the road. No one has gone on the record as to exactly what Jason did right, but he seems to have gotten everyone on the same page more than anything.

Jason knew Tom from the mid-90s when they worked together in Miami. They had a solid friendship. Jason had a background in scouting so he could relate to the scouts who were out on the road from late summer until January. Jason's time with the Patriots was also important. Just look at this quote:

"The No. 1 thing you learned there is the motto that we're building a team, we're not collecting talent. It's easier said than done."

Scouting isn't just finding the best players. You need to find the right players. Jason was able to figure out what kind of players the coaches wanted. He was able to help the scouts find those guys. You need synergy to make this process work well.

We let go of a handful of scouts (Dave Boller, Jim Monos, and Richard Shelton) after the 2004 draft. Marc Ross was fired from his position as College Scouting Director. Licht and Heckert brought in the guys they wanted. We hired Sean Gustus, Ryan Grigson, and Terry Mickens as scouts. Understand that the guys we fired weren't incompetent or anything to that extent. Licht and Heckert simply wanted people that they were really comfortable with. Go back to my point about cohesion. You need individuals that can work well independently and then come together and function as part of a group. Personality can be important in a situation like this. Scouts want their work to be embraced by the coaches and executives. The coaches want scouts that will find the right kinds of players. There has to be give and take as everyone works toward a common goal.  Licht was the guy who seemed to be able to keep everything going in the right direction.

Jason ran draft meetings. He was able to take the information gathered by the scouts and put it to good use. We built a good draft board, one that the scouts, coaches, and executives all believed in. This doesn't always happen. I've mentioned before that there are teams where one person has too much authority and will overrule the board in favor of a player based on gut instinct. So much for months and months of research and preparation.

Heckert was a master at understanding the big picture. He had a good feel for what the other 31 teams were doing. That helped us in assessing value and knowing when to be aggressive and when to move back in the actual draft. Licht and Heckert worked very well together.

Unfortunately there was some kind of incident in 2008 and Licht was fired. I've asked a lot of people about this, but no one likes to talk about the situation. We're forced to guess. It seems like Licht saw Howie Roseman on the way up the personnel ladder and wasn't very happy about that. You can understand why a guy with Jason's extensive NFL background would be ticked at the quick ascension of someone like Howie. I don't know if there was any type of personality clash involved or what. Jason is now back with the Pats, but on the Pro Personnel side of things. Eagles fans should be thankful that Jason came here and helped revamp the Personnel Department. He's gone, but his impact is still felt.

As things have turned out, it looks like the Eagles were right to choose Roseman over Licht (if the choice ever really had to be made). Howie did a terrific job of running the 2010 draft. We don't know exactly how the players will work out, but Roseman made smart moves, got good value, and it sure looks like he found us some quality players (Graham, Allen, Cooper, Harbor, Clayton, etc.).

This talk all started in regard to WRs. Let's look at the guys taken from 1999-2004 and then 2005-present.

1 - Na Brown, Troy Smith, Todd Pinkston, Gari Scott, Freddie Mitchell, Freddie Milons, Billy McMullen

2 - Reggie Brown, Jason Avant, Jeremy Bloom, DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, Brandon Gibson, Riley Cooper

It isn't hard to see which group is better, huh? It is so one-sided that it borders on ridiculous. I do think we have to factor in the improvement of Donovan McNabb as a passer, but that hardly accounts for everything. The beauty of the situation is that we're finding good players all over. It isn't as if we simply started taking WRs earlier. Pinky was taken ahead of DeSean, believe it or not. Whatever the coaches and scouts are doing now...stick with it.

I don't know if the Eagles have consciously self-scouted past draft failures or not. There are some interesting changes from the 2 periods:

• We took some oddball personalities in 1st round in the past (Freddie Mitchell, Lito Sheppard, Shawn Andrews). Now we're going for football guys.

• We traded up for a DE in 2003. Jerome McDougle was a 2-year player at Miami and had okay production. He did have a lot of potential. This year we traded up for Brandon Graham. He led the nation in TFLs and was a 4-year guy at Michigan. Polar opposites.

• Prior to 2005 the only I-AA or lower players we took were Brian Westbrook and Andy Hall. Both guys were local products that scouts/executives watched a lot. Andy Reid used to go to Villanova games and liked Westy quite a bit. Since '05 we've drafted 7 guys from I-AA or lower schools. The results have been mixed. Only Todd Herremans remains a starter now that Gocong plays for Cleveland. Still, I like the fact we're open to taking anyone.

• We've gone West, so to speak. We've almost doubled the amount of players taken in rounds 1-3 from schools west of the Mississippi. I didn't check out the numbers in the mid and late rounds.

• There seems to be more of a focus on brains / coachability. Which group fits that category better?

A - Brandon Graham, Nate Allen, Jeremy Maclin, LeSean McCoy, DeSean Jackson, Kevin Kolb, Victor Abiamiri, Stewart Bradley

B - Corey Simon, Todd Pinkston, Freddie Mitchell, Quinton Caver, Lito Sheppard, Jerome McDougle, LJ Smith

There are exceptions on each list. The point isn't to focus on every player, but rather the trend of taking certain kinds of players.